What is confounded with masks?

EVERYTHING?

Death rate models

.8 - 1.2 reinfection rate Andrew Cuomo says target range

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

https://health.mo.gov/living/healthcondiseases/communicable/novel-coronavirus/

DR(2020)  = DR(2018)    +   COVID-19

historical death rate in 2018 is given as 8.685 in 2019 report.

This report presents final 2018 U.S. mortality data on deaths and death rates by demographic and medical characteristics. These data provide information on mortality patterns among U.S. residents by variables such as sex, age, race and Hispanic origin, and cause of death. Life expectancy estimates, 10 leading causes of death, age-specific death rates, and 10 leading causes of infant death were analyzed by comparing 2018 and 2017 final data (1).

In 2018, life expectancy at age 65 for the total population was 19.5 years, an increase of 0.1.


In 2018, life expectancy at birth was 78.7 years for the total U.S. population-

Key findings

Data from the National Vital Statistics System

Life expectancy for the U.S. population in 2018 was 78.7 years, an increase of 0.1 year from 2017.

The age-adjusted death rate decreased by 1.1% from 731.9 deaths per 100,000 standard population in 2017 to 723.6 in 2018.

The 10 leading causes of death in 2018 remained the same as in 2017. From 2017 to 2018, age-adjusted death rates decreased for 6 of 10 leading causes of death and increased for 2.

Age-specific death rates decreased from 2017 to 2018 for age groups 15–24, 25–34, 45–54, 65–74, 75–84, and 85 and over.

The infant mortality rate decreased 2.3% from 579.3 infant deaths per 100,000 live births in 2017 to 566.2 in 2018.

The 10 leading causes of infant death in 2018 remained the same as in 2017.

Definitions

Cause of death: Based on medical information—including injury diagnoses and external causes of injury—entered on death certificates filed in the United States. This information is classified and coded in accordance with the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD–10) (3).

Death rates: For 2018, based on population estimates for July 1, 2018, that are consistent with the April 1, 2010, census. These population estimates (as well as population figures for the 2010 census) are available on the National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) website (4). Age-adjusted death rates are useful when comparing different populations because they remove the potential bias that can occur when the populations being compared have different age structures. NCHS uses the direct  method of standardization; see Technical Notes of “Deaths: Final Data for 2017” (1) for more information.

Leading causes of death: Ranked according to the number of deaths assigned to rankable causes (5).

Life expectancy:  The expected average number of years of life remaining at a given age. It is denoted by ex, which means the average number of subsequent years of life for someone now aged x. Life expectancy estimates for 2018 are based on a  methodology first implemented with 2008 final mortality data (6). Life expectancies for 2017 and 2018 are estimated using final Medicare data.

Principle

George W. Bush's VP discovered in the 1970s, Principle is okay up to a certain point, but principle doesn't do any good if you lose.

Dogs and WAAM

Only inside the DC Beltway or at Think Tanks would Problem Definition be considered a marketable skill.

In other environments engineers get paid to solve problems.

I found everything except dogs to be "not promising" in my M/BT work in South Vietnam.

WAAM is the WWMCCS  Allocation and Assessment Model.  WWMCCS is the World-Wide Command and Control System.

My experience with WAAM was to run about 30 times and try to draw conclusions from it.

All physicists  liked my work until realized my conclusions would lead to a LUA strategy.

Game Changers

Specially trained medical sniffer dogs could soon aid the fight against COVID-19 by sniffing out cases of coronavirus within seconds, according to researchers in the U.K.

9 days ago - Could Wearing a Face Mask Be a COVID-19 Game Changer? —

9  days ago - Could These New Tests Be a Coronavirus 'Game Changer'? FIVE MINUTES. A new brand of five-minute COVID-19 tests could help doctors ...

Mar 25, 2020 - Are Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin 'Game Changers' in Fight Against COVID-19?

COVID-19 Game Changer: Newly Approved Machine Can Decontaminate 80,000

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238834-will-a-home-antibody-test-for-covid-19-really-be-a-game-changer/

Vaccine

MODELS

Dr. Fuaci and Dr. Birx are using data driven models.  This is what modelers call the bottom up approach.  For the economy, we need a top down approach.

Dr. Fuaci seldom differs with "worst case" models.  The country needs to consider a "maximum likelihood" model.  I think Senator Rand Paul was getting at this idea. The states can act independently.  They don't need a "one-size-fits-all" but the Democrats do.

System engineers have to deal with both, as do other academic disciplines such as Operations Research.

An academic discipline which follows the top down approach, other than Economics, is System Dynamics .

The MIT professor who founded System Dynamics is Jay W. Forrester, "Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems", Technology Review, Vol. 73, No. 3, Jan. 1971, pp. 52-68.

Dr. Gerald O. Barney said the Chinese used this methodology to "modernize China."

Frederick von Hayek found a just price depends on local information.

In the System Age, what is local information?  In the Internet Age, only physical information needs to be local!

coming out of the COVID-19 situation

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

When everything is changing, neglecting transients would be a mistake.

I heard false test results first today 4/11/20.  I Googled Hypothesis Testing.  The video I watched mentioned one of the errors:  Type I or Type II

I saw Mornings with Marie 4/5/20.  I disagreed strongly with Steve Bannion and agreed strongly with Rudy Giuliani.

Dana has suggested a second task force to get the economy back on track.  Larry Summers is aware of Milton Friedman's that the Government can't react fast enough to keep it from being the wrong thing.

Everybody (US residents) outside the DC Beltway likes to volunteer.  My ex-spouse benefited from that in Florida.

I use hashtag #CISA on Twitter, occasionally. 

@GOPLeader is Kevin McCarthy

I was in the DC Area when the NPR was conducted and my friend Lonn Henderson was a part of it.

We want government support to be the least costly as possible, my discussions with Betty Thurman.


My experience with SSA

My son-in-law is George Black, Jr.

I saw Steve Bannion on Mornings with Marie, he quoted General Patton from WWII, "When are going through Hell, don't slow down."

Statistical populations to consider:

1. people with antibodies
2. recovered people
3. tested positive
4. tested negative
5. unexposed
6.  NOT
7.  PEOPLE TESTED NOT ANTIBODIES
8.  NOT RECOVERED
9.  NOT TESTED POSITIVE
10. NOT TESTED NEGATIVE
11. NOT UNEXPOSED
12. ME
13. NOT ME

The NPR, National Performance Review, assumes functional process improvement.

Every process can be improved. (And SHOULD be.)

I screamed at the local SSA  office when they explained copying something was/was not their workflow.

I belief, if you go out of your workflow, you're increasing the cost.

George Black, Jr. is in Air Traffic Control.  I did functional descriptions for the GAMO Program, including the AF TACC.

His wife won 7 awards at the local Science and Technology fair.

I used all my OT&E experince to design an experiment that could be conducted in our backyard, she had gotten temperature reading device from a FIT faculty advisor who had a graduate student who volunteered to ANOVA.  Her mother helped her collect data.

CL commented to "I really turned it on when somebody important was around."  As a member of INCOSE, I was aware that all the judges had instructed seem unimportant.  I guess they did.

Stop the spread or minimize deaths?

Minimizing the spread makes no sense.  Minimizing deaths makes good sense but it should include ALL deaths.

"All deaths" makes it a system problem.  Cybernetics is control theory applied to systems.

MODELS

I hear the data departs from the models.  Where have I heard that before in the 1970s and CLIMATE CHANGE.

Physicists have the best models.

Dr. Gerald O. Barney went to MIT and explained Urban Dynamics to me.  He said the Chinese used System Dynamics to evaluate policy statements.


Jay W. Forrester, "Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems",
Technology Review, Vol. 73, No. 3, Jan. 1971, pp. 52-68.

This paper is the source for articles labelled System Dynamics in myThe American Way blog.

The types of hypotheses are as follows:

Simple Hypothesis.
Complex Hypothesis.
Working or Research Hypothesis.
Null Hypothesis.
Alternative Hypothesis.
Logical Hypothesis.
Statistical Hypothesis.

Had my daughter Carrie-Lynn been more like me than her mother, we would the significance her results she had a graduate student that had volunteered to run an ANOVA for her.

TRANSIENTS  (control theory)

Original article:

Tansel Yucelen, Gerardo De La Torre & Eric N. Johnson (2014) Improving transient performance of adaptive control architectures using frequency-limited system error dynamics, International Journal of Control, 87:11, 2383-2397, DOI: 10.1080/00207179.2014.922702