coming out of the COVID-19 situation

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

When everything is changing, neglecting transients would be a mistake.

I heard false test results first today 4/11/20.  I Googled Hypothesis Testing.  The video I watched mentioned one of the errors:  Type I or Type II

I saw Mornings with Marie 4/5/20.  I disagreed strongly with Steve Bannion and agreed strongly with Rudy Giuliani.

Dana has suggested a second task force to get the economy back on track.  Larry Summers is aware of Milton Friedman's that the Government can't react fast enough to keep it from being the wrong thing.

Everybody (US residents) outside the DC Beltway likes to volunteer.  My ex-spouse benefited from that in Florida.

I use hashtag #CISA on Twitter, occasionally. 

@GOPLeader is Kevin McCarthy

I was in the DC Area when the NPR was conducted and my friend Lonn Henderson was a part of it.

We want government support to be the least costly as possible, my discussions with Betty Thurman.


My experience with SSA

My son-in-law is George Black, Jr.

I saw Steve Bannion on Mornings with Marie, he quoted General Patton from WWII, "When are going through Hell, don't slow down."

Statistical populations to consider:

1. people with antibodies
2. recovered people
3. tested positive
4. tested negative
5. unexposed
6.  NOT
7.  PEOPLE TESTED NOT ANTIBODIES
8.  NOT RECOVERED
9.  NOT TESTED POSITIVE
10. NOT TESTED NEGATIVE
11. NOT UNEXPOSED
12. ME
13. NOT ME

The NPR, National Performance Review, assumes functional process improvement.

Every process can be improved. (And SHOULD be.)

I screamed at the local SSA  office when they explained copying something was/was not their workflow.

I belief, if you go out of your workflow, you're increasing the cost.

George Black, Jr. is in Air Traffic Control.  I did functional descriptions for the GAMO Program, including the AF TACC.

His wife won 7 awards at the local Science and Technology fair.

I used all my OT&E experince to design an experiment that could be conducted in our backyard, she had gotten temperature reading device from a FIT faculty advisor who had a graduate student who volunteered to ANOVA.  Her mother helped her collect data.

CL commented to "I really turned it on when somebody important was around."  As a member of INCOSE, I was aware that all the judges had instructed seem unimportant.  I guess they did.

Stop the spread or minimize deaths?

Minimizing the spread makes no sense.  Minimizing deaths makes good sense but it should include ALL deaths.

"All deaths" makes it a system problem.  Cybernetics is control theory applied to systems.

MODELS

I hear the data departs from the models.  Where have I heard that before in the 1970s and CLIMATE CHANGE.

Physicists have the best models.

Dr. Gerald O. Barney went to MIT and explained Urban Dynamics to me.  He said the Chinese used System Dynamics to evaluate policy statements.


Jay W. Forrester, "Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems",
Technology Review, Vol. 73, No. 3, Jan. 1971, pp. 52-68.

This paper is the source for articles labelled System Dynamics in myThe American Way blog.

The types of hypotheses are as follows:

Simple Hypothesis.
Complex Hypothesis.
Working or Research Hypothesis.
Null Hypothesis.
Alternative Hypothesis.
Logical Hypothesis.
Statistical Hypothesis.

Had my daughter Carrie-Lynn been more like me than her mother, we would the significance her results she had a graduate student that had volunteered to run an ANOVA for her.

TRANSIENTS  (control theory)

Original article:

Tansel Yucelen, Gerardo De La Torre & Eric N. Johnson (2014) Improving transient performance of adaptive control architectures using frequency-limited system error dynamics, International Journal of Control, 87:11, 2383-2397, DOI: 10.1080/00207179.2014.922702