Death rate models

.8 - 1.2 reinfection rate Andrew Cuomo says target range

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

https://health.mo.gov/living/healthcondiseases/communicable/novel-coronavirus/

DR(2020)  = DR(2018)    +   COVID-19

historical death rate in 2018 is given as 8.685 in 2019 report.

This report presents final 2018 U.S. mortality data on deaths and death rates by demographic and medical characteristics. These data provide information on mortality patterns among U.S. residents by variables such as sex, age, race and Hispanic origin, and cause of death. Life expectancy estimates, 10 leading causes of death, age-specific death rates, and 10 leading causes of infant death were analyzed by comparing 2018 and 2017 final data (1).

In 2018, life expectancy at age 65 for the total population was 19.5 years, an increase of 0.1.


In 2018, life expectancy at birth was 78.7 years for the total U.S. population-

Key findings

Data from the National Vital Statistics System

Life expectancy for the U.S. population in 2018 was 78.7 years, an increase of 0.1 year from 2017.

The age-adjusted death rate decreased by 1.1% from 731.9 deaths per 100,000 standard population in 2017 to 723.6 in 2018.

The 10 leading causes of death in 2018 remained the same as in 2017. From 2017 to 2018, age-adjusted death rates decreased for 6 of 10 leading causes of death and increased for 2.

Age-specific death rates decreased from 2017 to 2018 for age groups 15–24, 25–34, 45–54, 65–74, 75–84, and 85 and over.

The infant mortality rate decreased 2.3% from 579.3 infant deaths per 100,000 live births in 2017 to 566.2 in 2018.

The 10 leading causes of infant death in 2018 remained the same as in 2017.

Definitions

Cause of death: Based on medical information—including injury diagnoses and external causes of injury—entered on death certificates filed in the United States. This information is classified and coded in accordance with the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD–10) (3).

Death rates: For 2018, based on population estimates for July 1, 2018, that are consistent with the April 1, 2010, census. These population estimates (as well as population figures for the 2010 census) are available on the National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) website (4). Age-adjusted death rates are useful when comparing different populations because they remove the potential bias that can occur when the populations being compared have different age structures. NCHS uses the direct  method of standardization; see Technical Notes of “Deaths: Final Data for 2017” (1) for more information.

Leading causes of death: Ranked according to the number of deaths assigned to rankable causes (5).

Life expectancy:  The expected average number of years of life remaining at a given age. It is denoted by ex, which means the average number of subsequent years of life for someone now aged x. Life expectancy estimates for 2018 are based on a  methodology first implemented with 2008 final mortality data (6). Life expectancies for 2017 and 2018 are estimated using final Medicare data.