Sunday, October 30, 2016

Outside the Beltway

A few weeks ago Gloria Borger on CNN said “We don’t want to re-litigate that.”  At the time I thought some of us do.

I moved inside the Beltway in 1968.  I came from Madison, Wisconsin, a liberal city in a conservative state.  I remember thinking of Alexandria, Virginia, as the location where a member of the American Nazi party lived.

I moved outside the beltway in 1997.  With the Monica Lewinski scandal and Bush vs Gore in 2000, my ABC Nightly News was almost the same as when I was inside the Beltway.
Outside the Beltway has two parts
:
1.       Inside the US

2.       Outside the US

Inside the US/Outside the Beltway may have litigated along with Inside the Beltway.  Some people, particularly conservatives, may well want to re-litigate lots of stuff.

Outside the US/Outside the Beltway did not litigate along with Inside the Beltway.  Inside the Beltway people tend to forget that.


Monday, September 26, 2016

Meaning Matters More

The Media elite claim "words matter".  My lawyer says that the other side's closing is "just words it is not evidence."  My thinking about that is that the Court's orders are "just words" also.

The Candy Crowley/CNN fact check debate issue is Crowley’s decision to do a bit of on-the-spot fact-checking of Mitt Romney’s contention that President Obama didn’t acknowledge an “act of terror” in Benghazi, Libya, until 14 days after the Sept. 11 attack.

I reviewed the Washington Post article a Google search presented.

I agree with the Twitter comment included at the end of the article:

To say that President Obama called the Libya Attack an act of terrorism on September 12th on the basis of the transcript is like saying that the Gettysburg Address is about baseball because it contains the word score.

My reading of the transcript is that Obama did not call the Benghazi incident an “act of terrorism” in his Rose Garden speech on September 12.  It would have been improper for him to have done this so soon.  Candy Crowley should have known that.  “Terror” does occur in the transcript.  Words matter.  Meaning matters more.  “Terrorism” does not occur.

Words matter but meaning matters more.

Thursday, September 1, 2016

But we can never say that

“But we can never say that” was attributed to Supreme Court Justice Hugo Black in an issue of the Wilson Quarterly,  a journal I subscribed to about 1990.  The issue containing Black’s comment was about 2000 or 2001.

Black’s comment was supposed to be about the Law School hypothetical – would you torture someone to prevent 5 million people being killed by a nuclear device?  He said, “Of course we would but we can never say that.”

Recently, a lot of children were migrating to the US.  Hillary Rodham Clinton, being aware of the “we can never say that” guidance said that all the children have to be sent back.   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-child-migrants_us_55d4a5c5e4b055a6dab24c2f

We can never say that lawbreakers will be given amnesty.  Otherwise, we are flooded with illegal immigrants.

Donald J. Trump knows that "amnesty" is a bad thing for our country.  Hillary used to know that we have to say that even unaccompanied children must be sent back.

We may torture or we may grant amnesty but WE CAN NEVER SAY THAT.


Saturday, August 13, 2016

Avoiding taxes IS a patriotic duty

Any one may so arrange his affairs that his taxes shall be as low as possible; he is not bound to choose that pattern which will best pay the Treasury; there is not even a patriotic duty to increase one's taxes.

       -Judge Learned Hand Helvering v. Gregory, 69 F.2d 809, 810-11 (2d Cir. 1934).

Since the Reagan Revolution, conservatives have known that avoiding taxes IS a patriotic duty!

The true measure of a person is not how much their charity deduction is but how much he has avoided in taxes.

Friday, July 8, 2016

Guidance for Do Gooders

The nation exhibits a growing sense of futility as it repeatedly attacks deficiencies in our social system while the symptoms continue to worsen. Legislation is debated and passed with great promise and hope. But many programs prove to be ineffective. Results often seem unrelated to those expected when the programs were planned. At times programs cause exactly the reverse of desired results.

Jay W. Forrester, "Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems", 
Technology Review, Vol. 73, No. 3, Jan. 1971, pp. 52-68.

Monday, June 27, 2016

Good Intentions

A search for “good intentions” at www.google.com led to a review of The Tyranny of Good Intentions: How Prosecutors and Bureaucrats Are Trampling the Constitution in the Name of Justice.  The book is by Paul Craig Roberts and Lawrence M. Stratton.  The review was by John J. Miller.

Miller states, ”The authors of The New Color Line return with another libertarian polemic, this time taking aim at a justice system that has lost sight of its most important goals.  Paul Craig Roberts and Lawrence M. Stratton warn of a ‘police state that is creeping up on us from many directions.’  There's the war on drugs, which makes it possible for federal agents to investigate people simply for carrying large amounts of cash.  There's the crusade against white-collar crime, which has turned the plea bargain into an enemy of the truth.  And there's outright misconduct, abetted by prosecutors more interested in compiling long lists of indictments than ensuring the fair treatment of all suspects.  The Tyranny of Good Intentions is replete with examples of how government treads on freedom through ill-willed prosecution and faceless bureaucracy.  The book's overpowering sense of disaffection sometimes leads to alarmist prose:  ‘We the People have vanished.  Our place has been taken by wise men and anointed elites.’  The authors are swift to suggest that America, barring ‘an intellectual rebirth,’ may yet go the way of ‘German Nazis and Soviet communists.’”

Miller continues, “Yet The Tyranny of Good Intentions is nothing if not well intended; it is full of passion and always on the attack, whether the writers are taking on racial quotas, wetland regulations, or any number of policies they find objectionable.  In a jacket blurb, libertarian icon Milton Friedman calls it ‘a devastating indictment of our current system of justice.’  Roberts and Stratton, although right-leaning in many of their political sympathies, will probably find plenty of fans on ACLU-left--and anybody who cringes at the thought of unbridled state power.  If the road to hell is indeed paved with good intentions, consider this book an atlas.”

Whether you are “right leaning” or “ACLU-left” you must occasionally have noticed that society becomes frustrated as repeated attacks on deficiencies in social systems lead only to worse symptoms.  Legislation is debated and passed with great hope, but many programs prove to be ineffective.  Results are often far short of expectations.  Indeed, government programs often cause exactly the reverse of desired results.  Similar observations were made by Jay W. Forrester in 1971.  A somewhat updated version of his classic “Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems” is available at http://web.mit.edu/sdg/www/D-4468-2.Counterintuitive.pdf.


Perhaps one reason good intentions often lead us astray is that the human mind is not adapted to interpreting how social systems behave.  Forrester states that social systems belong to the class called multi-loop nonlinear feedback systems.  Until very recent historical times, it was not necessary to understand complex feedback systems.  Forrester believes that new methods developed over the last 30 years will lead to a better understanding of social systems and thereby to more effective policies for guiding the future.

Forrester’s approach utilizes “system dynamics.”  His approach uses computer models extensively.  One of the founding members of the Operations Research Society of America (now INFORMS), Russell L. Ackoff described large complex problems as messes in his 1974 book Redesigning the Future.  The book is out of print but used copies are available at Amazon.com.  Another book by Ackoff, Ackoff’s Fables:  Irreverent Reflections on Business and Bureaucracy, is available at Amazon.com.  The publisher, John Wiley & Sons, describes it as “’Nothing is as obstructive to satisfaction of human needs and desires, let alone human progress, as bureaucracies.'  So goes Russell Ackoff's philosophy on human development. While relating wry observations made during a long career promoting human development, Ackoff demonstrates how most systems created to foster development actually prevent or retard it. You'll laugh at these war stories, but more importantly, you'll learn how to maximize your own personal development or that of your company by beating obstructive systems.”

The common theme is that “good intentions” are a poor guide to good policy in today’s world.

The first two paragraphs of  Forrester's 1971 paper appear very relevant for today:

This paper addresses several issues of broad concern in the United States: population trends; the quality of urban life; national policy for urban growth; and the unexpected, ineffective, or detrimental results often generated by government programs in these areas.

The nation exhibits a growing sense of futility as it repeatedly attacks deficiencies in our social system while the symptoms continue to worsen. Legislation is debated and passed with great promise and hope. But many programs prove to be ineffective. Results often seem unrelated to those expected when the programs were planned. At times programs cause exactly the reverse of desired results.

We should go slow and try to avoid knee jerk reactions which lead to counter-productive government actions.  

Thursday, June 16, 2016

1962 PSAC Report

In 1962 the President's Science Advisory Committee published a report entitled Meeting Manpower Needs in Science and Technology The "PSAC Report" declared that the acceleration of graduate training in engineering, mathematics, and physical sciences, especially at the doctoral level, was a matter of urgent national priority requiring immediate action, without which severe shortages of engineers and scientists would occur. Engineering was identified as an especially crucial area. The federal government was to provide the funds needed, through increased research expenditures, provision of training grants, and fostering of new centers of scientific excellence. The country was, of course, reacting to shocks to its prestige caused by the success of Sputnik, and was also riding the crest of the greatest economic boom in its history, and these events simultaneously provided both the motive and the means for a major expansion in engineering graduate programs. Engineering education responded immediately, and the numbers of graduate students rose to unprecedented heights. (Just eight years later, the magnificent declarations of the PSAC Report were negated by a new conventional wisdom—that Ph.D.s were a drug on the market.)