Specially trained medical sniffer dogs could soon aid the fight against COVID-19 by sniffing out cases of coronavirus within seconds, according to researchers in the U.K.
9 days ago - Could Wearing a Face Mask Be a COVID-19 Game Changer? —
9 days ago - Could These New Tests Be a Coronavirus 'Game Changer'? FIVE MINUTES. A new brand of five-minute COVID-19 tests could help doctors ...
Mar 25, 2020 - Are Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin 'Game Changers' in Fight Against COVID-19?
COVID-19 Game Changer: Newly Approved Machine Can Decontaminate 80,000
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238834-will-a-home-antibody-test-for-covid-19-really-be-a-game-changer/
Vaccine
Thursday, April 2, 2020
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
MODELS
Dr. Fuaci and Dr. Birx are using data driven models. This is what modelers call the bottom up approach. For the economy, we need a top down approach.
Dr. Fuaci seldom differs with "worst case" models. The country needs to consider a "maximum likelihood" model. I think Senator Rand Paul was getting at this idea. The states can act independently. They don't need a "one-size-fits-all" but the Democrats do.
Dr. Fuaci seldom differs with "worst case" models. The country needs to consider a "maximum likelihood" model. I think Senator Rand Paul was getting at this idea. The states can act independently. They don't need a "one-size-fits-all" but the Democrats do.
System engineers have to deal with both, as do other academic disciplines such as Operations Research.
An academic discipline which follows the top down approach, other than Economics, is System Dynamics .
The MIT professor who founded System Dynamics is Jay W. Forrester, "Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems", Technology Review, Vol. 73, No. 3, Jan. 1971, pp. 52-68.
Dr. Gerald O. Barney said the Chinese used this methodology to "modernize China."
Frederick von Hayek found a just price depends on local information.
In the System Age, what is local information? In the Internet Age, only physical information needs to be local!
Dr. Gerald O. Barney said the Chinese used this methodology to "modernize China."
Frederick von Hayek found a just price depends on local information.
In the System Age, what is local information? In the Internet Age, only physical information needs to be local!
Sunday, March 22, 2020
coming out of the COVID-19 situation
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
When everything is changing, neglecting transients would be a mistake.
I heard false test results first today 4/11/20. I Googled Hypothesis Testing. The video I watched mentioned one of the errors: Type I or Type II
I saw Mornings with Marie 4/5/20. I disagreed strongly with Steve Bannion and agreed strongly with Rudy Giuliani.
Dana has suggested a second task force to get the economy back on track. Larry Summers is aware of Milton Friedman's that the Government can't react fast enough to keep it from being the wrong thing.
Everybody (US residents) outside the DC Beltway likes to volunteer. My ex-spouse benefited from that in Florida.
I use hashtag #CISA on Twitter, occasionally.
@GOPLeader is Kevin McCarthy
I was in the DC Area when the NPR was conducted and my friend Lonn Henderson was a part of it.
We want government support to be the least costly as possible, my discussions with Betty Thurman.
My experience with SSA
My son-in-law is George Black, Jr.
I saw Steve Bannion on Mornings with Marie, he quoted General Patton from WWII, "When are going through Hell, don't slow down."
Statistical populations to consider:
1. people with antibodies
2. recovered people
3. tested positive
4. tested negative
5. unexposed
6. NOT
7. PEOPLE TESTED NOT ANTIBODIES
8. NOT RECOVERED
9. NOT TESTED POSITIVE
10. NOT TESTED NEGATIVE
11. NOT UNEXPOSED
12. ME
13. NOT ME
The NPR, National Performance Review, assumes functional process improvement.
Every process can be improved. (And SHOULD be.)
I screamed at the local SSA office when they explained copying something was/was not their workflow.
I belief, if you go out of your workflow, you're increasing the cost.
George Black, Jr. is in Air Traffic Control. I did functional descriptions for the GAMO Program, including the AF TACC.
His wife won 7 awards at the local Science and Technology fair.
I used all my OT&E experince to design an experiment that could be conducted in our backyard, she had gotten temperature reading device from a FIT faculty advisor who had a graduate student who volunteered to ANOVA. Her mother helped her collect data.
CL commented to "I really turned it on when somebody important was around." As a member of INCOSE, I was aware that all the judges had instructed seem unimportant. I guess they did.
Stop the spread or minimize deaths?
Minimizing the spread makes no sense. Minimizing deaths makes good sense but it should include ALL deaths.
"All deaths" makes it a system problem. Cybernetics is control theory applied to systems.
MODELS
I hear the data departs from the models. Where have I heard that before in the 1970s and CLIMATE CHANGE.
Physicists have the best models.
Dr. Gerald O. Barney went to MIT and explained Urban Dynamics to me. He said the Chinese used System Dynamics to evaluate policy statements.
Jay W. Forrester, "Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems",
Technology Review, Vol. 73, No. 3, Jan. 1971, pp. 52-68.
This paper is the source for articles labelled System Dynamics in myThe American Way blog.
The types of hypotheses are as follows:
Simple Hypothesis.
Complex Hypothesis.
Working or Research Hypothesis.
Null Hypothesis.
Alternative Hypothesis.
Logical Hypothesis.
Statistical Hypothesis.
Had my daughter Carrie-Lynn been more like me than her mother, we would the significance her results she had a graduate student that had volunteered to run an ANOVA for her.
TRANSIENTS (control theory)
Original article:
(2014) Improving transient performance of adaptive control architectures using frequency-limited system error dynamics, International Journal of Control, 87:11, 2383-2397, DOI: 10.1080/00207179.2014.922702
When everything is changing, neglecting transients would be a mistake.
I heard false test results first today 4/11/20. I Googled Hypothesis Testing. The video I watched mentioned one of the errors: Type I or Type II
I saw Mornings with Marie 4/5/20. I disagreed strongly with Steve Bannion and agreed strongly with Rudy Giuliani.
Dana has suggested a second task force to get the economy back on track. Larry Summers is aware of Milton Friedman's that the Government can't react fast enough to keep it from being the wrong thing.
Everybody (US residents) outside the DC Beltway likes to volunteer. My ex-spouse benefited from that in Florida.
I use hashtag #CISA on Twitter, occasionally.
@GOPLeader is Kevin McCarthy
I was in the DC Area when the NPR was conducted and my friend Lonn Henderson was a part of it.
We want government support to be the least costly as possible, my discussions with Betty Thurman.
My experience with SSA
My son-in-law is George Black, Jr.
I saw Steve Bannion on Mornings with Marie, he quoted General Patton from WWII, "When are going through Hell, don't slow down."
Statistical populations to consider:
1. people with antibodies
2. recovered people
3. tested positive
4. tested negative
5. unexposed
6. NOT
7. PEOPLE TESTED NOT ANTIBODIES
8. NOT RECOVERED
9. NOT TESTED POSITIVE
10. NOT TESTED NEGATIVE
11. NOT UNEXPOSED
12. ME
13. NOT ME
The NPR, National Performance Review, assumes functional process improvement.
Every process can be improved. (And SHOULD be.)
I screamed at the local SSA office when they explained copying something was/was not their workflow.
I belief, if you go out of your workflow, you're increasing the cost.
George Black, Jr. is in Air Traffic Control. I did functional descriptions for the GAMO Program, including the AF TACC.
His wife won 7 awards at the local Science and Technology fair.
I used all my OT&E experince to design an experiment that could be conducted in our backyard, she had gotten temperature reading device from a FIT faculty advisor who had a graduate student who volunteered to ANOVA. Her mother helped her collect data.
CL commented to "I really turned it on when somebody important was around." As a member of INCOSE, I was aware that all the judges had instructed seem unimportant. I guess they did.
Stop the spread or minimize deaths?
Minimizing the spread makes no sense. Minimizing deaths makes good sense but it should include ALL deaths.
"All deaths" makes it a system problem. Cybernetics is control theory applied to systems.
MODELS
I hear the data departs from the models. Where have I heard that before in the 1970s and CLIMATE CHANGE.
Physicists have the best models.
Dr. Gerald O. Barney went to MIT and explained Urban Dynamics to me. He said the Chinese used System Dynamics to evaluate policy statements.
Jay W. Forrester, "Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems",
Technology Review, Vol. 73, No. 3, Jan. 1971, pp. 52-68.
This paper is the source for articles labelled System Dynamics in myThe American Way blog.
The types of hypotheses are as follows:
Simple Hypothesis.
Complex Hypothesis.
Working or Research Hypothesis.
Null Hypothesis.
Alternative Hypothesis.
Logical Hypothesis.
Statistical Hypothesis.
Had my daughter Carrie-Lynn been more like me than her mother, we would the significance her results she had a graduate student that had volunteered to run an ANOVA for her.
TRANSIENTS (control theory)
Original article:
(2014) Improving transient performance of adaptive control architectures using frequency-limited system error dynamics, International Journal of Control, 87:11, 2383-2397, DOI: 10.1080/00207179.2014.922702
Thursday, January 2, 2020
Ben Kruidbos
"Ben Kruidbos, the IT director for the Florida State Attorney's Office who'd spoken up when important cellphone evidence he'd extracted from Trayvon Martin's cellphone was withheld by the state from the defense, was fired by messenger at 7:30 PM Friday, after closing arguments in the Zimmerman case. He was told that he could not be 'trusted to set foot in this office,' and that he was being fired for incompetence. Kruidbos had received a merit pay raise earlier this year. The firing letter also blames him for consulting a lawyer, an obvious sign of evil."
Monday, September 23, 2019
Compassionate Conservatism
Compassionate conservatism is an American political philosophy that stresses using traditionally conservative techniques and concepts in order to improve the general welfare of society. The philosophy supports the implementation of policies designed to help the disadvantaged and alleviate poverty through the free market, envisaging a triangular relationship between government, charities and faith-based organisations. The term itself is often credited to the American historian and politician Doug Wead, who used it as the title of a speech in 1979, although its origins lie in paternalism. This label and philosophy has been espoused by Republican and Democratic politicians since then though in recent times it has been strongly associated with former U.S. President George W. Bush, who commonly used the term to describe his personal views. The term has also been used in the United Kingdom by former Prime Minister David Cameron, and in New Zealand by former Prime Minister John Key.
Monday, July 1, 2019
THE POINT OF IT ALL by Charles Krauthammer
I finished reading THE POINT OF IT ALL. It is good. The following is extracted from it.
Not too many people can point to a specific day when they sat down with a book and got up cured of the stupidities of youth. I can. I was 19. The book was Four Essays on Liberty. The author was Isaiah Berlin.
Four Essays on Liberty is his great argument for pluralism.
Leo Strauss observed that Berlin's position made pluralism - the denial of one supreme, absolute value - the supreme, absolute value.
Chapter 11 - CHURCH AND STATE is particularly good/relevant/whatever.
It's subtitle is "Civil Religion -- and No Religion
Not too many people can point to a specific day when they sat down with a book and got up cured of the stupidities of youth. I can. I was 19. The book was Four Essays on Liberty. The author was Isaiah Berlin.
Four Essays on Liberty is his great argument for pluralism.
Leo Strauss observed that Berlin's position made pluralism - the denial of one supreme, absolute value - the supreme, absolute value.
Chapter 11 - CHURCH AND STATE is particularly good/relevant/whatever.
It's subtitle is "Civil Religion -- and No Religion
Friday, April 12, 2019
Forrest Gregg
Packers great Forrest Gregg, 'finest player' Vince Lombardi coached, dies at 85, today.
Gregg was known for his toughness, as a player and a coach. He battled Parkinson’s disease late in his life with the same toughness. He was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease in 2011. After he was diagnosed, he worked to increase awareness and education of the disease. Before that, Gregg beat melanoma in 1976 and colon cancer in 2001, according to the Associated Press.
I was in Wisconsin 1961 to 1968.
The Green Bay Packer’s most successful period was in the 1960s, under the legendary coach Vince Lombardi, who had been hired in 1959. Lombardi’s Packer teams in the ’60s were stocked with talent, boasting future Hall of Fame players on offense and defense: quarterback Bart Starr, fullback Jim Taylor, halfback Paul Hornung, tackle Forrest Gregg, linebacker Ray Nitschke, end Willie Davis, tackle Henry Jordan, cornerback Herb Adderley, and safety Willie Wood. They won championships in 1961 and 1962 and followed with three straight championships starting in the 1965–66 season. On January 15, 1967, in the inaugural Super Bowl, the Packers defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 35–10. They successfully defended their Super Bowl title the following year against the Oakland Raiders, 33–14.
I was in the DC Area from 1968 to 1997.
Vince Lombardi was the Packer coach from 1959 to 1967. And the was the Washington Redskins coach 1969-1969.
Gregg was known for his toughness, as a player and a coach. He battled Parkinson’s disease late in his life with the same toughness. He was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease in 2011. After he was diagnosed, he worked to increase awareness and education of the disease. Before that, Gregg beat melanoma in 1976 and colon cancer in 2001, according to the Associated Press.
I was in Wisconsin 1961 to 1968.
The Green Bay Packer’s most successful period was in the 1960s, under the legendary coach Vince Lombardi, who had been hired in 1959. Lombardi’s Packer teams in the ’60s were stocked with talent, boasting future Hall of Fame players on offense and defense: quarterback Bart Starr, fullback Jim Taylor, halfback Paul Hornung, tackle Forrest Gregg, linebacker Ray Nitschke, end Willie Davis, tackle Henry Jordan, cornerback Herb Adderley, and safety Willie Wood. They won championships in 1961 and 1962 and followed with three straight championships starting in the 1965–66 season. On January 15, 1967, in the inaugural Super Bowl, the Packers defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 35–10. They successfully defended their Super Bowl title the following year against the Oakland Raiders, 33–14.
I was in the DC Area from 1968 to 1997.
Vince Lombardi was the Packer coach from 1959 to 1967. And the was the Washington Redskins coach 1969-1969.
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