Saturday, June 29, 2013

Beyond Reasonable Doubt


Natural Law has the highest Standard

 The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that the highest standard of proof is grounded on "a fundamental value determination of our society that it is far worse to convict an innocent man than to let a guilty man go free."
In hypothesis testing, Type I error is to reject the test hypothesis when it is indeed true.  Type II error is to accept the test hypothesis when some other (including unknown) hypothesis is the true one.

Area/Domain
Criterion
Natural Law
Greater than 5 sigma (>.999999)
Technology
.9999
Social science
Elegant experimental design and hypothesis testing
Operational Test and Evaluation
Greater than 95%
Political science/polling
+/-3%  (95% Confidence Level)
Florida Law
 
Nation
<100*[1 – (1000)/(#Decisions)]

 
Most surveys have a ninety five percent confidence level.  There’s  a one in twenty possibility that the overall public opinion doesn’t fall within the estimated margin of error.

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