Sunday, October 20, 2013

Heads Should Roll?


Marine Corps General Lewis William Walt had a reputation of relieving/replacing commanders on the spot.  President Truman said, “The buck stops here.”  Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said, “I’m responsible.”

The calls for “heads to roll” because of the disastrous Obamacare rollout may have a great basis in politics but they have no basis in “systems development”, systems integration project management, or government acquisition policies.

I was aghast when I heard that the system implementation success rate was only 60% (or was it 40%).  Had I known you could keep your job if you failed, I may have become a successful project manager.

We assist system integrators by requiring them to have small and small disadvantaged business plans.  The interesting work for some of us is farmed out to subcontractors.  We think of such wonderful criteria as past performance cannot be a selection criterion.

During my working years, “mission critical” and then “embedded systems” were given special consideration because “failure was not an option.”

Support for Obamacare should not be considered in the same category with military and naval mission critical systems.  If we have time to sue over the incident, the situation is not that critical.  Also, insuring success is extremely costly.

I joined the Marine Corps Operations Analysis Group in August, 1968, and became the group’s amphibious doctrine expert (“stuckee”, would be more descriptive.)  For a high risk cannot fail operation like an amphibious landing, it is necessary to practice the landing.  There is no LFM-01 and/or NWP 22B/C for the Affordable Care rollout.

In previous acquisitions, women and foreigners have been more concerned about receiving some of the money than they were about subsequent contract performance.

Two Marine Corps generals were dismissed recently for failures related to Afghanistan – a place where the Marines should never have gone and the military should have left long ago.  It seems that the touchy feely days of the Postmodern Era have given way to a return to Reality and/or Common Sense.  People are being held responsible for their performance or lack thereof.

Republicans should be aware that each “fix” costs money.  The verification check for income is an additional functionality and cost of the system.  If these costs are recovered, it will not be until in the “long term” when, according to John Maynard Keynes, we are all dead.

If we agree that it is a legitimate role of the Government, then we really probably do want the “Best Value” in the acquisition process.  Isn’t the competent provider that agrees to provide the product or service to the Government for the lowest expected cost our “best value?”

President Obama has repeatedly demonstrated that he has no real world military command and control expertise.  David R. Gergen of Harvard and CNN and the Washington Post’s Bob Woodward of Watergte fame have both commented on this.

On October 18, 2013, on CNN, President Obama declared that the glitches in the rollout (of Obamacare) are “unacceptable.”  President Obama and I know what “responsible party” means when BP dumps oil into the gulf.  Do we share an understanding of “unacceptable?”  I fear it’s like Mandatory Disclosure List (MDL) in Florida.  MIL-STD-188C was Mandatory throughout the world where US Military operated.  The spelling is the same.

Throughout my life the Democrat Party has transitioned from advocating “compromise” to just say, “No compromise on Obamacare.”  People seem more concerned about the Role of Government than the Role of the Taxpayer.  Citizens should not be forced to violate their consciences.  We have recognized “conscientious objectors” in the armed forces.  Shouldn’t we make the same concessions to Taxpayers (in funding undeclared war) and organizations in implementing Obamacare?

 

Monday, July 29, 2013

The Hypothetical

Vice President George H. W. Bush previously headed the CIA and was “out of the loop on Iran – Contra.”

Having someone “out of the loop” was an essential ingredient of plausible deniability.  Plausible deniability was one means of dealing with covert operations that were not as covert as intended.

George W. Bush and subsequent administrations have advocated “transparency.”  Bush 43 had an Hispanic employee of the Justice Department Alberto Gonzales develop position papers or defenses for torture.  That employee became the first Hispanic Attorney General.

The United States of American should be 100% against torture under any and all circumstances.  When the hypothetical occurs, the practitioner of torture should have to rely on the mercy of a jury in his trial by peers.

Minimal government is best.  President George W. Bush’s intentions were good.  He was an Evangelical Christian.  Unfortunately, he led the USA down the Road to Hell.  Vice President Cheney accelerated the process.  Cheney and Rumsfeld were members of the paranoid Nixon Administration.  Richard N. Perle a paranoid appearing person was a staffer for Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson beginning in 1969.

To the sins of the sixties, Bush 43 added Michael Chertoff who served as the second United States Secretary of Homeland Security and “co-authored” the USA PATRIOT ACT and Viet D. Dinh an émigré from Vietnam.  Dinh is a lawyer who served as an Assistant Attorney General of the United States from 2001 to 2003.  Born in Saigon, he was the chief architect of the USA PATRIOT Act.

With all the problems we currently have, isn’t it time to give capitalism a chance.  It enables people with significantly different value systems to interact in the global economy.  See Course Number 5665 at http://www.thegreatcourses.com/tgc/courses/course_detail.aspx?cid=5665.  We should declare victory in the War on Drugs majorly escalated by Richard M. Nixon and go home.  President Obama is on the right track here.  For the Gun Control enthusiasts and the Comprehensive Reformers, I have provided a Must Do List at http://dr2htay.blogspot.com/2012/12/must-do-something-list.html

The Thinking About Capitalism course provides background for why we should let China and other emerging economies protect their infant industries like our Founding Fathers did.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Regimented Theory

Regimented theory is our overall science, the sum total of our best and most objective knowledge about the world, reformulated in the clearest and simplest form.

Saturday, June 29, 2013

Beyond Reasonable Doubt


Natural Law has the highest Standard

 The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that the highest standard of proof is grounded on "a fundamental value determination of our society that it is far worse to convict an innocent man than to let a guilty man go free."
In hypothesis testing, Type I error is to reject the test hypothesis when it is indeed true.  Type II error is to accept the test hypothesis when some other (including unknown) hypothesis is the true one.

Area/Domain
Criterion
Natural Law
Greater than 5 sigma (>.999999)
Technology
.9999
Social science
Elegant experimental design and hypothesis testing
Operational Test and Evaluation
Greater than 95%
Political science/polling
+/-3%  (95% Confidence Level)
Florida Law
 
Nation
<100*[1 – (1000)/(#Decisions)]

 
Most surveys have a ninety five percent confidence level.  There’s  a one in twenty possibility that the overall public opinion doesn’t fall within the estimated margin of error.

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Glenwood Gardens 911 Call



Levels of service available at Glenwood Gardens:


“How Doctors Die” by Ken Murray, Best Essays of 2012, says that doctors do not die like the rest of us.  What’s unusual about them is how little treatment they get compared to the rest of us.

 
Doctors know enough about death to know what all people fear most:  dying in pain and dying alone.  They want to be sure, that when the time comes, that no heroic measures will happen—that they will never experience, during their last moments on earth, someone breaking their ribs in an attempt to resuscitate them with CPR (that’s what happens if CPR is done right).

….

“How has it come to this—that doctors administer so much care that they wouldn’t want for themselves?  The simple, or not-so-simple, answer is this:  patients, doctors, and the system.”

Aren’t we entitled to die like doctors?

Tuesday, January 1, 2013